Claire, Plantpassion

Using Data to work out your planting plans

So why do we need to keep all this data? We learnt in the customer module about GDPR, and the advice then was to keep as little data as possible, why is it not the same when it comes to data about our growing and selling?

Well as long as we've kept the right information, working out what we're going to do in future weeks, months and years, and whether that work is going to make us more efficient and more profitable is what we're really about. I've found that the more data I have at my fingertips, the easier it is to work out my plans for the coming season.

So this section is looking at the questions we need to be answered to be able to work out our planting plans, key objectives for the year, sales predictions and profitability .

First, - Planting Plans:

When we were looking at planning crops in Module 1, and Module 2 and 4, we were really just guesstimating about which customers we'd be selling to, and how many plants we would need. Be honest, it was probably mostly based on "I like that" and "I think the customers I'm guessing will buy from me will like that" but now that you have records from previous years, you can use that data to work out what you want to grow more of.

The kind of questions you might be thinking about are for planting planning are

How many do you need to grow?
How much room will they need
How much greenhouse / undercover space will they need while growing?
Will you need to plant everything yourself? will you need help?

1) To be able to work out how many you need to grow, you need to know

How many did you grow last year?
Were they all needed?
Did you sell every single one?
If you didn’t, how many more could you have picked from what you grew?
Are you selling to the same customers?
Would different customers want the same flowers?
What are your attrition rates? Will you need to plant more to allow some to fail.

2) To be able to work out how much room you will need, you need to know

How many stems did you get from each bed / square metre of growing space last year
Could you have got more stems?
Was every square metre of space used productively?

3) To be able to work out how much greenhouse / undercover space you'll need, you need to know

How much sooner / later can you get crops from your covered space (and is that needed for your customers)?
How profitable is each square metre of undercover space, taking into account extra costs?
How many plants/ modules / seedlings will you need produce to fill your outside space, and how will you store them in your undercover space?

4) To be able to work out whether you will be able to grow and plant everything yourself, you need to know

How much were you able to plant last year (timings / numbers of beds)?
Will you have more space / better prepared beds this season?
Are you likely to be faster and more efficient this year?

Here's the way that I work out my seed sowing plan, and my field plan, in the same process:

1) Take my seed sowing plan from last year as an outline

2) Go through the list, and using sales figures, work out if I want to grow more or less of each line this year

3) Go through my seed supplies, and work out

Do I have seeds of what I want to grow? (if not, put it on my to buy list)
When did I sow them last year? was that the right time?

4) Add each variety that I'm going to grow to my field plan, so I know where it will fit in

5) This will tell me how many I'll have room to grow / if I need to get on and make new beds

Setting objectives

Another key question that record keeping can help with is setting objectives.

When should this be done?

If we know from diaries and notes, when something was done one year, and we know if that was successful or not, then we can work out what timing we should give it this year.

E.g If one year you write in the diary

24th May - planted Gladioli in place of Tulips. and then there's a note (should have been planted 2 weeks earlier)

Then this year, it needs to go in the diary for the week of the 10th May.

This doesn't just need to be for planting, it applies to marketing activities, sourcing plants and seeds (maybe you've noted when a company has a special offer) finding time for larger project activities, and also for your booking in your time off.

My large objectives for the coming months are :

By the end of January - Finish preparation of all far side of the field perennial beds.

By the end of February - Finish preparation / weeding / paths of all the near side perennial beds plus the rose area.

By the end of March - Plant out all overwintered pots and modules in the greenhouse and grow-tunnel.

First 2 weeks of April - Finish all weeding in sheltered area - start selling.

Last 2 weeks of April - Split and pot all Dahlias.

These aren't just objectives I've picked out of the air, - I know that the dahlias need 4 weeks in the grow-tunnel before planting out, and that I hope (weather depending) to plant them out the last week of May.

I know that if I don't plant out any overwintered plants in March, then they get too pot bound to grow away quickly and that we won't get good flowers this year.

I know that last year the perennial areas didn't get a good weed and mulch, and that has created a bigger workload this year.

Finding data to help our sales predictions

We'd all love to know how much we could sell next year. Budgets are always a bit of guesstimating, but using data we've collected can really help us.

When I worked in retail, sales budgets were usually worked out by "Head Office!" We'd be told - your store took 1 Million pounds this year, and we think the market is buoyant and your area is doing well, so next year you will take 10% more. The thing was that if we suddenly took 15% more, we could always order in more stock from a multitude of suppliers to cover it.

When you're growing everything for yourself, then it's more difficult to suddenly up production past a certain level.

So here are a series of questions to ask yourself

Did you have more customers per week at the beginning of last season or the end? If the end of the season was a lot busier, it appears that your business is growing and will have a bigger audience this year.
Did you pick everything last year?
Did the mix of types of sales change during the year?
Look at what you sold last year, If you doubled it this year, could you do that with the same amount of flowers / space as you produced last year?
Does the thought of selling that many more flowers/ making that many more sales fill you with dread, or enthusiasm .

“Question
Have you set your budgets yet?
If so how much are you planning to increase/ decrease?
If not: what would be your guesstimate from data you have so far?”

Working out profitability

Keeping endless records is no good unless they are helping us to know about the P word.

Yes Profit and Profitability are key things to know about.

At it's simplistic level, if you have money in the bank after all the costs and taxes are taken into account, then you are profitable. BUT, knowing what makes you profitable, and therefore what could make you more profitable next year is really important.

This chart above shows an activity I carry out each year on my top selling lines.

It shows clearly that just because you sell the most of something (in this case mint) it doesn't mean that it is going to be the most profitable.

Here although mint is the highest number of stems sold, the price per stem is a lot lower than the other lines. Dahlias are by turnover (money in) the highest selling line, but when you take into account the price you buy them at, the time it takes to lift them, store them, split them and plant them, they are not on the top of the profit list at all. Hesperis wasn't in the top 5 of number of stems sold, or turnover, but when you take into account that they are easy to pick, self seeded themselves, and we sold them all, they become profitable.

Likewise, you need to think about your sales activities.

These are my key sales areas.

Weddings made me the most money last year, and each of my brides spent on average £403.53. BUT, they required a lot of my time, a lot of my staff time in picking and sorting. For some of the bigger weddings, I had to have floristry assistance. Some of the smaller ones, still got a consultation and individual attention even though in some cases they weren't spending much more than my flower subscription clients.

My bouquet sales were OK, the average spend per head was actually down from the year before, as I'd started offering market bouquets at £15. The bouquets use a lot less flowers, but were more work to put together.

My florists sales are holding steady, even though I don't have a minimum spend. The number of florists who come and just buy £10-£20 worth of stems for just one bouquet are offset by those who get larger £200 orders. -The sales were 30% down on the year before because I didn't have enough bulk number last summer because of the weather. I know that this is an area I can increase dramatically this season.

The flower subscriptions (read my blog post about these) were my best sales and the most profitable . Most of these subscriptions are my "Friday flowers" or my "Flower arrangers buckets" A lot of the customers from this section also pop up in either my bouquet sales, or my wedding/ party sales as well, showing me customer loyalty.

The 3rd part of Profit (and in my experience the most forgotten part) is how are your costs doing?

Each year, I would expect some costs to go up, and some to come down

Costs going up

Staffing (if I'm getting bigger sales)
Insurance
Rents and utilities

Costs going down

Plant material
Floristry sundries
Subcontractor costs (If sales are getting bigger, these should be regular staffing costs now, not bigger one off costs)

Costs staying the same

Small tools (repairs and replacements needed)
Advertising and training (budgets need to be set)